Happy Fun Time Oscar Predictions, Extraordinaire

Ah, the Oscars - for a movie critic and fan, the greatest love-hate spectacle of them all. For so many of us, the Oscars represent an incredibly important award ceremony gone sour; a Hall of Fame riddled with problems of popularity and politics, scarred by a ridiculous and short-sighted approach to daring works of cinema and fundamentally undone by the always problematic "make-up award" (meaning awards given to industry figures not for the merit of their current work, but for the Academy's failure to recognize previous accomplishments). But for reasons I wish I didn't understand, I still find myself glued to my television set every Spring, waiting on the announcements - and even worse, checking the Internet daily for the scoops, skinnies and leads on nominees and winners. So, what's the big deal? The big deal is: movies are amazing. They capture us with amazing, escapist ease, and yet they hold within themselves the power to make truly moving and important artistic statements. To say they are the dramas of our time, the cinema house our century's Shakespearean stage is to deny the originality that, I believe, makes movies so special: they are a NEW art, an NEW medium, and when all the pieces fit, the way they are able to speak and to move...well, it's amazing. So, I'm for efforts, no matter how flawed, to reward the many, many people who make this amazing, collaborative art what it has the potential to be (well, not Golden Globe-flawed...). I'm an Oscar fan, dammit, and I will stand and applaud the spare handful of moments this Sunday night when that statuette goes to the man or woman that most deserves it, popularity or box office or politics be damned. If it keeps artists interested in using the popularity of their medium to draw attention to the things art is all about, I say bring on the red carpet.

Now, on with my picks for this year's awards:

BEST ACTOR - Forrest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland

This is a good place to start. Although a few people I liked got left off the list, Forrest turned a magnificent performance, and he has all but run the ticket in the other award ceremonies thus far. Consider him all but a lock. If there's a dark horse, I would say it's Peter O'Toole, who has the whole "lifetime achievement" thing going for him.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls

I didn't see Dreamgirls and I have no regrets about it, but from what I hear, Murphy has two big things going for him: 1) he channels the R&B greats almost as well as he channeled those spirits in Haunted Mansion, and 2) his long career in Hollywood. I loathe that type of prestige - it deters people from actually recognizing performances - but it seems it will be enough to get Murphy to the podium, despite Eddie's campaigning against himself this past month with Norbit.

BEST ACTRESS - Helen Mirren - The Queen

I saw The Queen and honestly didn't think that much of it, but Mirren's performance is spot-on, and in a year that was a bit down for female parts. This is definitely the single most iron-clad lock of the evening, and a miss here would be, well, disastrous for my chances of winning twenty bucks off my friends...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls

This is traditionally the category where the Academy goes the most crazy, often throwing the "safe choice" to the wind to honor sometimes the most bizarre of token nominees - however, this year, the relative mediocrity of Hudson's competition would make any attempt to dislodge the season favorite seem like an intentional slight - something the Academy, recently celebrated for its diversity, would not want. Hudson is a lock, but if you're looking for a dark horse, my pick is Abigail Breslin, who could pull that cute-kid-wearing-a-fat-suit crap and sucker grandparent voters. Is there anyone I didn't offend at least a little with this post?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Little Miss Sunshine

Of course, if Breslin doesn't nap the supporting actress statue, the Academy still has to throw a bone somewhere to the little comedy that could this year, and my guess is that it will be in the screenplay category. The writing is fine, to be sure, and I really liked the movie, but I think this is a cheap win, and there were several more interesting and more provocative scripts out there. In any case, look for the yellow VW bus to make its way up at about the two hour mark for Original Screenplay.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - The Departed

This pick is a little bit dicey, but I think the movie has the buzz recently to pull it off. Although the screenplay William Monohan adapts The Departed from is already pretty damn good - Hong Kong's Infernal Affairs - the translation not only of language, but intent - and then the removal of the action to Boston and its accompanying social environment - is pretty astounding, and my heart is in this pick as much as my wallet is.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - Children of Men

This will be CoM's lone award this year, and that's a shame - the flick is downright sensational - but its a good pick up, as the film's staggering visual command not only helps the viewer to feel right at home in the 2030s (after all, Spielberg already did that in Minority Report, didn't he?), but it also makes those "oh my God" moments of action feel downright visceral. Violence in this film is shockingly close, and it is the camera-work in particular that makes the documentary realism of the film work so well. A good win.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - An Inconvenient Truth

This is another no-brainer - has anyone even heard of any of the other nominees? Has any documentary ever had such a large impact on our world? Hold your tongue, Fahrenheit 9/11 supporters! You can't gloat if you didn't change the outcome of an election - and by God, An Inconvenient Truth might actually get somebody into the 2008 race. Pretty impressive, whether you consider yourself someone who believes 200 years of industrial growth is behind the well-documented and scientifically verified changes in our global environment, of if you are still tacking melting ice caps up to the anger of Apollo as he is being pulled across the sky in a mighty chariot. I'm sure you're both a little right, so, you know, whichever.

BEST FOREIGN FILM - Pan's Labyrinth

Oh, I love this category. Few categories goes as right as this category does most every year, and when Guillermo del Toro takes the stage Sunday night and accepts an Oscar for what is without a doubt one of the year's most ambitious and successful films, I, for one, will be absolutely ecstatic. Pan's Labyrinth is marvelous, and if you still have it in your town, please, please, please go see it.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM - Cars

...and as much as I love the foreign film category, I hate this one. Although it seemed like a good idea when we were getting half a dozen solid animated films each year (when was that, exactly? 1995?), now this category has turned into a race to find the tallest man to walk on the moon (the point being, there aren't many candidates). In any case, if Pixar runs, Pixar wins, no matter how mediocre Pixar's entry into the contest might be. So Cars it is, even if Monster House, which never did find an audience, is the far superior picture.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - The Queen

I usually like this category, but I couldn't care less this year. The best music I heard was the Kronos Quartet's work in The Fountain, but nobody else saw the movie, it seems, so it got left out. I thought Clint Eastwood's work in Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima was awfully nice, but nobody cares about that, either. So, sure, go with The Queen. It's won all the other awards so far.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG - Dreamgirls

Again, I don't care. Dreamgirls wins this, so just mark it down and send more mean letters to Robert Redford for creating this category with that stupid song in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.

SOUND MIXING - Dreamgirls

People sing, people dance - it sounds fresh, it sounds period - honestly, I don't really know what this category even means.

SOUND EDITING - Letters from Iwo Jima

Hey, at least it will take home an Oscar. Good try, Clint - maybe next time you should come up with a more original or meaningful idea than retelling the story of one of the most grisly and important battles of the 20th century's most significant global conflict from the respective points of view of each side, making a dramatic statement for peace in a war-torn time, over the course of two ambitious and largely successful motion pictures. Sound editing is what you get, pal. Now go make more indulgent, operatic nonsense like Mystic River so we can reward you properly.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM - Matchgirl

Never heard of it. Picking this name at random.

LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM - West Bank Story

Never heard of it. Picking this name at random.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT - Blood

Never heard of it. But it has that "Holocaust documentary - Oscar gold" feel to it, doesn't it?

VISUAL EFFECTS - Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest

Seems like a crappy movie always wins this category. Here's to hoping I'm right and it ends up being this one.

COSTUMES - Dreamgirls

Period costumes, bright lights, lots of dancing and singing: dark horse = Marie Antoinette.

MAKE-UP - Pan's Labyrinth

I actually care about this award sometimes, especially times like this year, when the winner will actually deserve recognition for doing something special that advances the scope of the field. Hooray.

FILM EDITING - The Departed

How do you make a two-and-a-half hour police thriller overwhelm you with speed and action? I have no idea, but The Departed did just that, and I can't imagine anyone seeing the movie and feeling otherwise - an accomplishment, of an editorial sort, I imagine. Your dark horse is Babel.

BEST DIRECTOR - Martin Scorsese - The Departed

Do you see what I did here? I started with interesting categories, then went through all the boring ones, and I saved two of the most interesting categories for last. How's that for pacing and rhythm? In any case, this is the night's big story, with Martin Scorsese, five-time Oscar nominee and a director already enshrined in the Hollywood pantheon, finally receiving the little gold statuette that will solidify the significance of his film career, post 1980. The Academy has been trying to give him this award for some time, but the movies haven't been up to snuff: Gangs of New York, The Aviator. But this year, Marty's got the movie, he's got the box office, he's got the buzz, he's got it all - and Sunday night, this will be the speech to watch. Congratulations, and consider this category wrapped up.

BEST PICTURE - Babel

I almost chickened out here - this year's Best Picture race is as close as it gets, with no clear favorites out of the entire pack. An argument can be made for any of the five films nominated, and although I feel incredibly shaky about this pick, especially since I'm arguing that Best Picture will be Babel's only Oscar win, the bottom line is: Babel has the award credentials, it has the director, it has the performances, it has the dramatic subject matter - it has everything it needs to win Best Picture, and maybe even to rinse our palates of the filthy stench of Crash from a year ago. If you want to rank the other contenders, I think The Departed is still poised to sweep, Little Miss Sunshine is the legitimate dark horse, The Queen has 'safe choice' pedigree, and even Letters from Iwo Jima has Clint Eastwood as its director, and you can never, ever count Clint out of an Oscar race.

So, there you have it. My guess: I'll nab 19/24 - that would be the average over my last three years guessing this thing. Even if I don't win the twenty bucks from my friends, I think these picks are good enough to keep you in the running of any office pools you might be a part of, and hey, them's braggin' rights, buddy. If there's nothing else to say (I hope there's not...), then best of luck everyone - tune in this Sunday night and we can all see what happens together. It's a crazy time of year, to be sure - one that wrecks the yearly movie calendar with reckless abandon, one that inflates Hollywood's already substantial ego to the absolute bursting point - but recognizing achievement is what this society is all about (for better or worse). I know I won't be able to look away.

KMC